A reality coming to a place near you

To get a sense of what collapse feels like in a 'rich' country, read this post from journalist Sarah Wilson: "Notes from a burning Paris", 27 June 2026. She lives in a converted attic in a Paris apartment building, so has first hand knowledge of what it's like to live through a relentless heatwave. Along with many others, Wilson writes about taking extraordinary measures to cope with the unrelenting heat in a city that was not built for such extremes.

Wilson talks of chains of unintended consequences. The examples are many. She mentions that the Golfech nuclear power plant had to reduce output because river water was too warm to provide adequate cooling. Simulatenously, power consumption spiked as people turned on their AC units. The result, a blackout. There is a run on bottled water after after a water sanitation plant shut down. Delivery of goods were being disrupted as roads buckled and railway tracks are too hot for trains to operate safely. And on it goes.

We're staring down the barrel of the fragile supply chain disruptions we had during the Covid-19 pandemic all over again. Wilson shares the prognosis from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, "who warn of "compound and non-linear systemic impacts", which will likely be exacerbated with El Niño. Bringing simultaneous shocks to agriculture, water supplies, electricity generation, transport, food prices and inflation that reinforce one another."

A day considering the Reality of Everything

All this was unraveling at the same time I was attending The Reality of Everything symposium on 26 June. Over the course of the day the perils of exceeding multiple planetary boundaries for humans and more-than-human life was laid bare, along with some hints about what to do about it.

We heard about many boundaries, including climate, energy and food, the insidioius logic of white supremacy, and the ramifications for health and insurance. There was a rapid tour through a deliberative process, and a light touch on some forward looking responses.

If there was an omission on the programme, it was the very real prospects of social meltdown. The recent Helen Clark Foundation report on social cohesion showed "cohesion has slipped across all dimensions, with notable declines in belief that hard work brings a better life, a fair go for all, and trust in government and courts. There have been sharp drops in institutional legitimacy." This has important implications about how we make decisions about some tough issues.

The final session offered clues about what we need to do to unlock a meaningful societal level responses to our predicament. Gareth Hughes from Wellbeing Economy Alliance Aotearoa spoke of the concept of "islands of coherence". While this received a teasing mention, the concept of weaving together alternatives that pre-figure a livable and just world has a strong appeal.

Alternative visions

With the extractive, neo-liberal order holding such a powerful sway, it's going to take a lot of determination and smart thinking to supplant this. Despite the dominant political forces undermining our shared egalitarian ethos, we can still draw on memories and histories to co-create a future that ensures everyone can have a good life.

We can draw on working real-life, tangible examples of alternative systems, structures and ways of being that put our collective interests first. In Aotearoa, matauranga Māori and moemoeā of a 500-year intergenerational view offer us a guiding light.

The heatwave that Wilson wrote about is not an anomaly. Speaking to the BBC, Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, warned "Our heatwaves will get hotter and hotter and hotter until we get to global net zero greenhouse gas emissions [and] we stabilise the climate."

People are facing climate extremes virtually everywhere around the planet. On our present trajectory, reversing human induced climate change impacts and pulling back from overshoot of planetary boundaries is some time off.  

The symposium was another wake-up call. We've got to face up to a reality that none of us wished for, and get organised on many levels. Any delay is at our own peril.

Update 13 July: recordings of the 10 expert talks are now freely available online. 🎥